The 70% Problem: Why Most of Your Acquired List Will Never Engage (And Why That's Okay)
Understanding realistic activation rates and planning your data acquisition accordingly
Introduction
You just acquired 100,000 contacts. Your platform shows "100,000 contacts" in your database. You're excited to reach 100,000 constituents.
But here's the truth: you'll probably reach 20,000-30,000.
Even with excellent strategy, proper warming, and compelling content, only 20-30% of acquired contacts will become regularly engaged. The other 70% will never open your emails, click your links, or take action.
This isn't failure—it's normal. And when you plan for it, you win.
The bottom line: If you want 100K engaged supporters, you need to acquire 300K-500K contacts.
The Mistakes Organizations Make (And Why They're Expensive)
Before we dive into why the 70% problem exists, let's look at what happens when you don't plan for it.
Mistake #1: Under-Acquiring
The most common mistake: buying only 100K contacts while expecting to engage 100K people.
Result: You end up with 20K-30K engaged supporters, missing your goals by 70%.
Now you need to buy more data, but:
You've already spent your budget
No volume discount on smaller purchases
You're in constant acquisition mode instead of optimization mode
Your true cost per engaged supporter skyrockets
Mistake #2: The Desperation Spiral (How Bad Planning Destroys Good Data)
When organizations under-acquire, they often enter a destructive pattern:
Realize they're not reaching enough people
Blast everyone repeatedly trying to force engagement
Destroy sender reputation and deliverability
Make even the 20-30% who would engage unreachable
End up reaching fewer people than if they'd planned properly
This is where campaigns waste real money. You paid for the data. You paid for the platform. But poor planning transforms these investments into losses.
Mistake #3: The Platform Illusion (Why Your Database Lies to You)
Your email platform shows "100,000 contacts" in your database. It feels like you have a big audience.
But that number is meaningless. Your platform doesn't distinguish between:
Contacts who open every email (highly engaged)
Contacts who opened once six months ago (marginally engaged)
Contacts who never opened anything (dead weight)
This false confidence leads to under-acquisition in the first place. You think "we have 100K contacts" when you really have 20K engaged supporters and 80K names in a database. So when leadership asks to reach 200K people, you buy another 100K contacts—and end up with only 40K-50K total engaged supporters instead of the 200K you needed.
The solution: Stop counting database size. Start counting engaged supporters. Then build your acquisition strategy around that reality.
The 70% Reality (And Why It's Actually Normal)
A 20-30% activation rate is not just acceptable—it's good performance in political communications. Understanding why 70% won't engage helps you plan effectively instead of fighting reality.
Why 70% won't engage:
The reasons are varied and mostly beyond your control. Not everyone cares about every issue, even if they're in your target demographic. People change jobs, priorities, and situations between data collection and your outreach. Everyone is fighting for attention in increasingly crowded inboxes. Natural attrition takes its toll—expect roughly 10% of your list to become invalid each year as emails change. And while quality data starts with less than 1% bad addresses, accuracy issues compound over time.
The key insight: You're not buying an audience—you're buying potential for an audience. The contacts who engage become your real audience. The rest were lottery tickets that didn't win, and that's built into the cost structure.
The Math That Actually Works
Here's the straightforward math for planning effective acquisition:
The acquisition multiplier:
Want 50K engaged? Acquire 150K-250K
Want 100K engaged? Acquire 300K-500K
Want 500K engaged? Acquire 1.5M-2.5M
Why bulk acquisition makes sense:
The economics favor buying in volume. You get lower per-contact costs through significant vendor discounts. You have room to be selective during activation without worrying about running out of contacts. The buffer protects against natural attrition. And you can segment and target strategically without constantly questioning whether you have enough list to work with.
The real cost per engaged contact:
Let's run actual numbers:
500K contacts at $0.135 each = $67,500 total investment
20-30% engagement = 100K-150K engaged supporters
True cost: $0.45-$0.68 per engaged supporter
Now compare this to social media acquisition at $8-20+ per engaged email subscriber. Suddenly the bulk acquisition approach—even accounting for the 70% who never engage—delivers engaged supporters at roughly 1/15th the cost of social acquisition.
This is why smart organizations acquire in bulk and accept the 70% problem rather than trying to cherry-pick only "guaranteed" engagers at premium prices.
How to Plan for Success (The 5-Step Framework)
Step 1: Define Your Engaged Audience Goal
Be specific: "We need 100K people who regularly open our emails and take action when we ask."
Don't say "we need a database of 100K contacts." That's planning for the illusion, not the reality.
Step 2: Calculate Acquisition Needs
Multiply your goal by 3-5x to account for 20-30% activation rate.
100K engaged goal = 300K-500K acquisition target
Yes, this seems like a lot. But it's the only math that works.
Step 3: Acquire Strategically
Buy in bulk for volume discounts—often 20-30% lower per-contact costs. Secure data before it changes or gets more expensive. This approach gives you room to be selective during activation and provides a buffer for inevitable attrition.
Step 4: Activate Gradually
Warm in controlled batches—don't blast everyone at once. Let behavior identify truly interested contacts, then move engaged contacts to regular communications. Accept that 70% won't engage and move on.
Step 5: Focus Resources on the 30%
Once you've identified your engaged audience, concentrate your best content on contacts who actually engage. Develop sophisticated segmentation for your active audience. Occasionally attempt to re-engage the 70%, but don't count on it. Most importantly, protect your deliverability by not constantly mailing disengaged contacts.
Why This Is Actually Good News
First, you're not failing. A 20-30% engagement rate means you're doing well compared to industry standards. You have clarity about who your real audience is based on behavior, not assumptions.
Second, your deliverability improves. By not constantly mailing disengaged contacts, you protect your sender reputation and ensure your engaged audience actually receives your messages.
Third, your real costs are lower. At $0.45-$0.68 per engaged supporter (compared to $8-20+ for social acquisition), you're delivering dramatically better ROI than alternative acquisition methods.
Finally, you have a competitive advantage. Most organizations don't plan this way—they under-acquire and over-mail, achieving worse results at higher real costs.
Conclusion: Plan for Reality, Not Hope
The 70% problem isn't a problem—it's reality. Accept it, plan for it, and build your strategy around it.
The winning approach:
Acquire 3-5x your engaged audience goal from the start
Budget for it properly
Execute the warming strategically
Focus on building deep relationships with the contacts who do engage
The losing approach:
Under-estimate acquisition needs
Under-acquire data
Over-mail in desperation
Destroy deliverability and waste more money than proper planning would have cost
Hope is not a strategy. When you plan for the 70% problem, you're not being pessimistic—you're being realistic. And realistic planning consistently outperforms wishful thinking in political communications.
Planning your data acquisition strategy? Alpine Data Strategies helps political organizations calculate realistic acquisition needs, source high-quality data at volume discounts, and implement strategic warming programs that identify your truly engaged audience.
Contact us at austin@alpinedatastrat.com or 267-424-1892 to discuss your goals and ensure you're acquiring the right amount of data to hit your engagement targets.